Modelling Individual Decisions to Support
the European Policies Related to Agriculture


In this phase of our project in a co-creation process with a core group of stakeholders and with participation of our modelling experts we are focusing on policy scenarios and indicators in relation to the MIND STEP modelling system. 

The objectives of the 2.5 hour workshop are to get feedback on the relevance of the indicator framework to estimate the impacts of the policy scenarios and to illustrate the use of the MINDSTEP toolbox for a selected policy scenario.

In the first half of the workshop Silvia Coderoni presented how the outcomes of the 1st stakeholder workshop (June 2020) was processed. The 24 policy scenarios looking at the 9 post-2020 CAP objectives suggested by the stakeholders were grouped into three topics: 1) climate change action, 2) preserve biodiversity, ecosystem services and environmental care, and 3) increase competitiveness. She also presented the results of the assessment of the policy scenarios by the modellig team in terms of potential for modelling at different spatial scales. All scenarios in Group 1 can be modelled, most of the scenarios in Group 2 can be modelled, and more than half of the scenarios in Group 3 can be modelled.

Marta Perez-Soba presented the reviewed data sources for indicators, and our focus on the impacts of EU agricultural policy and the results of the modellers' view on  indicators-policy scenarios. JRC with UCSC and WR have created a consolidated list of 83 indicators by 1) identifying relevant indicator themes, 2) selecting relevant indicators per theme for selected data sources, 3) compared data sources list and identified indicator overlaps. The consolidated indicator list then was assessed by modellers along the list of scenarios in terms of relevance and their potential for the models by scenarios. Marta also presented the outcomes of the questionnaire recently run among stakeholders about completeness of indicator list and relevance of indicators for the 3 scenario groups.

The presentations were followed by the discussion of emerging questions: 1) what is the ideal number of indicators? 2) Can the new indicators proposed by the stakeholders be modelled?

In the second half of the workshop John Helming presented the MIND STEP model toolbox in details, and Hugo Storm from UBO illustrated the use of the toolbox for a selected scenario "Mandatory reduction of input use" using FarmDyn and Agripolis. The presentations were followed by a discussion where stakeholders presented their views on the appropriateness of the toolbox, and how the models and tools should be developed and tested to created trust in them.

Many thanks to our Core Stakeholder Group members for participating at our 2nd stakeholder workshop, and for providing their valuable feedback to the indicator selection and using them in toolbox development.